How it works
Close calls, made quickly.
Pick the players you're torn between. We pull this week's numbers for each one: our projection (a model fitted on past seasons that also predicts each player's targets, carries and pass attempts this week, refitted every week as this season's games come in, and blended with this week's defensive matchup), season and last-three-game scoring, usage, red-zone work and efficiency, the opponent's points allowed to the position, the Vegas spread and implied team total, and the injury report. The player our projection has ahead starts.
How often is it right?
We replayed every week of 2024 and 2025, training on one season and testing on the other so nothing is graded on games it learned from. Across every Start/Sit matchup between startable players (about 21,000 a season), our projection picked the higher scorer 61% of the time in 2025 and 59% in 2024. On close calls, where the two projections are within 3 points, it was right 56% of the time, against about 53.5% for a simple projection.
The decision model on top was last replayed with the earlier, simpler projection: on those close calls it picked the higher scorer 52.5% of the time.
So the projection makes every call, on Start/Sit and in My Team's lineup alike, and the two always give the same answer. The decision model's lean isn't shown, so there's never a second answer to weigh against it.
The percentage on each call is the odds: how often a favorite by that many points outscored the other player in 2023–25 replays. Under 2 points it's a toss-up (52–55%); past 6 points the favorite won about 70% of the time or better.
The numbers behind each call
Under every call you can set how far back the stats look: the last 3, 6 or 10 games, or the whole season. You get snap share, target share, red-zone, two-minute and first-read looks, efficiency, a matchup radar of which stats this week's defense gives up or takes away, and how similar players did against that defense. Hover or tap any stat for why it matters. The Usage page shows every team's shares and whose role is growing, for the waiver wire.
Trade check
For each player we work out a rest-of-season scoring rate, the games they have left after byes and this week's injury report, and how many points a game they score over the best player likely sitting on waivers. The model weighs both sides and says accept or decline. It judges the players, not your roster, so a trade that fills a hole on your team can be worth more to you than it looks here.
Mock draft
Player values come from last season, so rookies aren't on the board and teams are as of last year. The suggested picks drafted about as well as a standard value-based approach in our tests.
Data
The site moves on to the next week every Monday at 10 PM Pacific, once Monday Night Football is over, so My Team has next week's lineup ready that night. Until then, stats from the week's finished games are already in the tables, and the waiver page can preview next week's hidden gems built from them. Weekly stats, injuries and schedules come from nflverse and refresh every hour. Between official injury reports, breaking news (ESPN's injury and news feeds, plus any reporter feeds the site follows) is checked every few minutes: a newer status such as a Friday ruling or a game-day inactive replaces the official one, and the call sees the latest news.